The U.S. air cargo industry is facing a major disruption after President Donald Trump’s decision to eliminate duty-free exemptions for low-value e-commerce imports from China. This abrupt move threatens the business models of major marketplaces like Shein, Temu, AliExpress, Amazon, and Shopify, while logistics providers, express carriers, and customs brokers scramble to adapt.
How the New Tariffs Impact Air Cargo and E-commerce
In 2023, the U.S. imported over 2.5 million tons of cargo by air from China, with 1.3 million tons consisting of low-cost e-commerce goods. The removal of the de minimis trade privilege means many of these imports now face a 10% tariff, forcing businesses to reconsider their logistics strategies.
Previously, the de minimis rule allowed shipments under $800 to bypass tariffs, enabling direct-to-consumer sales. Chinese e-commerce giants took advantage of this by leasing entire freighters to meet fast delivery demands, fueling 12% growth in the air cargo sector last year. With this model disrupted many sellers may shift to bulk ocean shipments, increasing transit times and inventory costs in the U.S.
Air Cargo Rates Could Plummet
With fewer e-commerce parcels transported by air, experts predict a steep drop in air cargo demand. Freightos data suggests that transpacific air freight rates, which averaged $5–$7 per kilogram in 2023, could fall by 30% to $3.65/kg—or even lower.
Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, notes that excess capacity could push rates down further, especially as passenger airlines restore operations and increase belly cargo space.
Shifting Supply Chains and Rising Consumer Costs
Anticipating stricter de minimis regulations, Chinese retailers have already invested in U.S. warehouses to transition to a B2B2C fulfillment model. This means goods will now be pre-imported, taxed, and stored domestically before delivery.
While this shift may streamline logistics, it also raises costs, which are likely to be passed on to consumers. The National Foreign Trade Council estimates that a $50 package could incur $31 in paperwork and fees, more than doubling its price.
Global Ripple Effects on E-commerce Logistics
China accounts for 61% of all de minimis shipments, and companies are now exploring alternative routes. Some manufacturers are relocating to Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia, which still qualify for de minimis exemptions.
Mexico once considered a potential workaround for Chinese goods, is no longer a viable option due to new tariffs on re-exported products. Meanwhile, Congress is considering lowering the $800 de minimis threshold, which could further restrict low-value imports.
What’s Next for Air Cargo and E-commerce?
Industry leaders remain uncertain about the long-term impact. While demand for low-cost online goods remains strong, the new tariffs are forcing retailers to rethink shipping strategies, potentially leading to longer delivery times and higher prices. For now, the air cargo sector braces for turbulence as the full effects of Trump’s tariffs unfold.
How Airsupply Logistics Can Help
Airsupply Logistics (ASLG) offers tailored air cargo solutions to help businesses navigate the growing opportunities at Vienna Airport. Our expertise in pharma logistics, e-commerce shipments, and temperature-sensitive cargo ensures seamless transportation across global markets. With a strong focus on reliability and efficiency, ASLG leverages Vienna Airport’s strategic location and advanced facilities to provide end-to-end logistics services.
Whether you’re shipping high-value pharmaceuticals, expanding your e-commerce reach, or requiring specialized cargo handling, ASLG is here to support your business needs in the dynamic air cargo industry.
