• Global aviation air supply logistics freight demand (calculated in terms of freight ton-kilometers or "CTKs") increased by 9.1% year-on-year in September 2019 (international demand increased by 9.4%).
• Capacity is still limited, 8.9% lower than in September 2019 (international capacity dropped by 12%).
• Attention should be paid to several factors affecting global air cargo demand:
- Supply chain interruption and the resulting delay in delivery have caused supplier delivery time to be too long. Usually manufacturers will use faster air freight to make up for the lost time in the production process. In September, the global supplier delivery time Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 36, and a value below 50 is beneficial to air cargo. To
- New export orders and manufacturing output in September's Purchasing Managers' Index fell from the previous month, but they are still beneficial to air cargo. Global manufacturing continues to grow, but emerging economies have narrowed. To
- Near the peak of year-end promotions such as "Double Eleven", "Black Friday" and "Chop Hand Monday", the inventory-to-sales ratio remains low, which is good for air cargo, but further restrictions on capacity still pose risks.
- The cost of air freight relative to container transportation is still very competitive. Before the crisis, the average price of air freight was 12.5 times that of ocean freight. In September 2021, the air freight price is only three times the ocean freight price.
Mr. Willie Walsh, Chairman of the International Air Transport Association, said: “Compared with the level before the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia, the demand for air cargo increased by 9.1% in September. As manufacturers turn to air transport to increase speed, supply Chain tension is good for air transportation. However, severe capacity restrictions continue to reduce the additional demand for air cargo handling. If not resolved, supply chain bottlenecks will slow down the economic recovery. Governments must take action to ease the pressure on the global supply chain and improve overall resilience. "
Regional performance in September
Asia-Pacific airlines' international air cargo volume in September 2021 increased by 4.5% compared with the same period in 2019. Compared with the previous month (up 5.1%), demand has slowed down. Demand is being affected by the slowdown in China's manufacturing industry. The region’s international capacity is obviously limited, with a decrease of 18.2% from September 2019. Looking ahead, the decision of some countries in the region to lift travel restrictions will increase capacity. To
Compared with September 2019, North American airlines' international cargo volume in September 2021 increased by 19.3%. New export orders and the demand for faster delivery times are driving the performance of North American Airlines. Compared with September 2019, international capacity dropped by 4.0%, a slight improvement from the previous month. To
Compared with the same period in 2019, European Airlines Air Freight Services increased its international freight volume in September 2021 by 5.3%. This is comparable to the August performance (up 5.6%). The large North Atlantic trade corridor has the strongest demand (an increase of 6.9% from September 2019). The performance of other routes was weak. Manufacturing activities, orders, and long supplier delivery times are still conducive to air freight demand. In September 2019, international capacity dropped by 13.5%.
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