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Sep 28,2021

There is room for the Chinese economy to further integrate with the world

In the global trade arena, China is both an important supplier and an important consumer market. China became the world's largest commodity exporter in 2009, and in 2013 it became the world's largest commodity trading country. Its share of total global merchandise trade increased from 1.9% in 2000 to 11.4% in 2017.


We analyzed 186 countries and regions, of which 33 countries’ largest export destination is China, and 65 countries’ largest import source is China. However, the dependence of different regions and industries on China's trade varies greatly.


China has a high impact on certain regions (especially neighboring countries) and industries, especially those regions where the technology industry chain has achieved global integration, and resource export industries that regard China as a key market. In 2017, China became the world's fifth largest service exporter with an export value of 227 billion US dollars, which is three times that of 2005. In the same year, China's service import value reached 468 billion US dollars, making it the world's second largest service importer.


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However, China's global share of trade in services is not as good as that of merchandise trade. In 2017, China accounted for 6.4% of the total global service trade, which is about half of merchandise trade. From a global perspective, trade in services is growing 60% faster than trade in goods.


After examining the economic interdependence between China and the world in terms of trade, capital and technology, we found that China’s dependence on the world economy is relatively declining, while the world’s dependence on China’s economy is relatively increasing.


The McKinsey Global Institute selected three key dimensions of trade, technology, and capital from the above eight dimensions, and analyzed the degree of economic interdependence between China and the world. From 2000 to 2017, the world's dependence on the Chinese economy has increased in all three aspects, while China's dependence on the world economy has decreased.


The McKinsey Global Institute recently compiled the "China-World Economic Dependence Index", which aims to measure the relative importance of these economic flows to China and the global economy through horizontal comparison with other large economies. Research shows that from 2000 to 2017, the world's comprehensive dependence index on China's economy gradually increased from 0.4 to 1.2, while China's dependence on the world economy reached the highest point of 0.9 in 2007, and fell to 0.6 in 2017. .


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