On March 9, the International Air Transport Association (IATA, hereinafter referred to as "IATA") released a regular report on global air cargo. Affected by supply chain disruptions, limited capacity and economic downturn, demand for air cargo will increase in January 2022. slow.
Global air cargo demand, measured in freight tonne kilometers (CTKs*), increased by 2.7% compared to January 2021 (international demand increased by 3.2%). Significantly lower than the December 2021 growth rate (9.3%, international demand rose 11.1%).
Air cargo capacity increased by 11.4% compared to January 2021 (international capacity increased by 10.8%). Despite the optimistic growth in capacity, it is still limited compared to pre-COVID-19 and 8.9% lower than in January 2019.
Supply chain disruptions and economic downturns have slowed demand growth. Due to the following points:
1. Supply chain disruptions caused by flight cancellations due to labor shortages, severe winter weather, slow 5G deployment in the United States, and the adoption of "dynamic clearing" epidemic prevention policies in mainland China and Hong Kong.
In 2.1, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for global new export orders fell below 50 for the first time since August 2020, and most companies participating in the survey saw a decline in new export orders. In March, the global supplier delivery time purchasing managers index (PMI) was 37.8. While a value below 50 generally favors air cargo, under current conditions, lead times will be extended due to supply bottlenecks. 4. The inventory-to-sales ratio is still very low. In favor of air cargo, manufacturers have turned to air cargo to quickly meet demand.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh said: “Cargo demand grew by 9.3% in December and 2.7% in January this year, which was lower than expected. Cargo growth has normalized this year and is expected to grow 4.9%. Looking ahead, the freight market is expected to be affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Manufacturing and economic activity are affected by sanctions-related impacts, coupled with rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty. Capacity is expected to face more pressure, with freight rates or It's going to go up. It's too early to predict what the upside will be."
Russia-Ukraine conflict The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will have a negative impact on air cargo. The airspace closure disrupted many direct connections to Russia-related markets. Overall, the impact on the global market is expected to be low, with freight to and from Russia accounting for only 0.6% of global air freight in 2021. There are several professional cargo airlines registered in Russia and Ukraine, operating heavy cargo.
January regional performance Asia Pacific airlines' air cargo traffic in January 2022 increased by 4.9% compared to the same period in 2021. Significantly lower than the previous month's growth rate (12.0%). Available capacity in the region is up 11.4% compared to January 2021, but remains significantly constrained compared to pre-COVID-19 and down 15.4% compared to 2019. The "dynamic clearing" epidemic prevention policy adopted by mainland China and Hong Kong, China has affected demand, and a large amount of stocking before the Spring Festival holiday has also affected the freight volume. North American airlines saw a 1.2% decline in cargo traffic in January 2022 compared to January 2021. Significantly lower than last December (up 7.7%). Labor shortages, severe winter weather, issues with 5G deployment, and supply chain congestion due to rising inflation and a weakening economy weighed on growth. Compared to January 2021, capacity increased by 8.7%. European airlines' cargo volumes in January 2022 increased by 7% compared to the same period in 2021. Although slower than the previous month (+10.6%), Europe was more resilient than most other regions. European airlines benefited from a strong economic recovery and capacity moderation. Capacity in January 2022 is 18.8% higher than that in January 2021 and 8.1% lower than before the epidemic (2019).
Middle Eastern airlines were the weakest of all regions with a 4.6% decline in cargo traffic in January 2022, down from the previous month (up 2.2%). Impacted by deterioration on several key routes including Middle East-Asia and Middle East-North America. Compared to January 2021, capacity increased by 6.2%, but still below pre-pandemic levels and down 11.8% from the same period in 2019. Latin American airlines’ cargo volumes in January 2022 increased by 11.9% compared to the same period in 2021. The month-on-month (+19.4%) decrease. Capacity in January was 12.9% lower than the same period in 2021, well below pre-COVID-19 levels, and 28.9% lower than the same period in 2019. African airlines posted the strongest performance in the region with a 12.4% increase in cargo traffic in January 2022 compared to January 2021. Capacity is up 13% from January 2021.
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