Civil Aviation Resource Network, April 8, 2022 News: Regular data on the global air cargo market released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA, "IATA") shows that despite a challenging operating environment, freight demand in February 2022 will remain high. has grown.
Several factors pushed air cargo higher in February compared to January 2022. On the demand side, manufacturing activity picked up rapidly after the Lunar New Year holiday in early February; COVID-19 travel restrictions were gradually eased; fewer flight cancellations (outside of Asia) were affected by Omikojon, and fewer weather-related disruptions in winter, Positive impact on capacity.
Note: This article uses year-on-year data, and will no longer be compared with 2019 data unless otherwise stated. Although capacity remains constrained, freight demand exceeds pre-COVID-19 levels.
Global air cargo demand, measured in freight ton-kilometers (CTKS*), increased by 2.9% year-on-year in February 2021 (international demand increased by 2.5%).
Demand grew 2.7% year-on-year by averaging the performance of January and February and taking into account the impact of reporting fluctuations that may result from the Lunar New Year. Although cargo volumes continued to grow, they were lower than the December 2021 year-on-year growth rate (8.7%).
Capacity increased by 12.5% year-on-year in February 2021 (international capacity increased by 8.9%). Despite the positive growth in capacity, it is still 5.6% below February 2019 levels compared to pre-COVID-19 levels.
The following factors in the operating environment deserve attention:
In February 2022, aggregate G7 consumer prices rose by 6.3% year-on-year, the highest level since late 1982. While inflation generally dampens purchasing power, it is balanced against higher savings levels brought on by the pandemic.
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for global new export orders fell to 48.2 in March, the lowest level since July 2020, with new export orders falling for most companies surveyed.
Mainland China and Hong Kong have adopted a "dynamic zero" policy for the epidemic. The shortage of labor has caused flight cancellations to disrupt supply chains, and many manufacturers cannot operate normally.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict occurred at the end of February and has limited impact on the current data of air cargo on a global scale. The negative effects of the war and related sanctions especially increased energy costs and reduced trade, will become more pronounced starting in March.
IATA Director General Willie Walsh said: “Despite an increasingly challenging trading environment, demand for air cargo continues to grow. As the economic impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict begins There are likely to be changed in March. Sanctions-related impacts on manufacturing and economic activity, rising oil prices, and geopolitical uncertainty will weigh on air cargo performance.”
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